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气候和环境动态:解读欧洲世界遗产遗址的分布和脆弱性

¹Faculty of Geography and History, Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM), UCM - Faculty of Geography and History, Edif. B, Calle del Prof. Aranguren, s/n, Moncloa - Aravaca, 28040, Madrid, Spain.

Journal of environmental management

|July 27, 2025

概括

气候变化对欧洲的世界遗产遗址 (WHS) 构成重大风险. 这项研究制定了一个框架来评估这些风险,确定沿海和中高度地区是脆弱的,特别是在高排放场景下.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
文化遗产研究文化遗产研究
适应气候变化适应气候变化

背景情况:

欧洲的世界遗产 (WHS) 集中在受到地球环境因素和人类活动影响的地区.
气候变化的升级需要对遗产分布和环境脆弱性的区域评估.

研究的目的:

建立与气候有关的遗产风险评估的可复制框架.
分析 WHS 分布模式,并确定关键的环境决定因素.
评估当前和预期的气候风险,并对保护优先级进行分类.

主要方法:

对于跨环境类型的WHS空间聚类的高斯混合模型.
随机森林算法用于量化气候,地形,生态和社会经济决定因素.
一个包含侵蚀,腐蚀-生物降解和干旱的多维风险指数,根据共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 场景进行评估.

主要成果:

WHS在地中海海岸线和中高度区域呈现空间聚类,最近的数量增长.
降雨季节性和干旱度指数是对遗产分布的主要气候控制.
水力动力侵蚀和干旱是直接的威胁;高排放场景预计风险大幅扩大,特别是在欧洲南部.

结论:

在环境集群中存在风险暴露和适应能力的差异,一些WHS群体非常脆弱.
开发的框架为系统的气候风险评估和文化遗产保护的优先级提供了一个实用的工具.
这些发现支持主动的,特定于环境的保护战略,将气候适应和遗产管理整合起来.

关键词:

高斯混合物建模气候脆弱性指数.遗产风险优先级划分遗产风险优先级划分世界遗产空间时间模式世界遗产

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