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死亡率的计数器和分母的变化及其对预期寿命变化的贡献
Wen Su1,2, Mike Hollingshaus3, Vladimir Canudas-Romo1
1Australian National University.
Population studies
|July 28, 2025
概括
预期寿命的增长是由人口增长推动的,而不仅仅是死亡人数减少. 这种分数-分母方法揭示了影响长寿的人口变化,特别是在长寿率高的国家.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 预期寿命是人口健康的一个关键指标,反映了死亡率趋势.
- 预期寿命的变化受到死亡率 (计数器) 和人口规模/结构 (分母) 的变化的影响.
- 现有的方法经常汇总这些因素,掩盖了变革的具体驱动因素.
研究的目的:
- 引入和应用分数-分母分解方法来分析预期寿命变化.
- 区分人口增长和死亡率变化对预期寿命趋势的贡献.
- 检查2009-2019年高寿命国家预期寿命变化的驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 开发了分数-分母分解方法来分析预期寿命变化成分.
- 计算出人活年 (分母) 和观察到的死亡人数 (计数器) 的相对变化.
- 将该方法应用于高寿命国家 (2009-2019) 的人口统计数据.
主要成果:
- 高寿命国家的预期寿命增加主要是由年龄较大的人口增长推动的,超过死亡人数的增加.
- 在研究期间,美国的预期寿命增长很小.
- 在美国的城市和农村地区之间观察到预期寿命趋势的显著亚国家差异.
结论:
- 人口增长的动态,特别是在老年人群中,对预期寿命的增加起着至关重要的作用.
- 分子-分母方法提供了对影响寿命的因素的细微了解.
- 了解人口变化对于解释和预测未来预期寿命趋势至关重要.
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