在预测模型中纳入纵向可变性:在长期随访的队列研究中对机器学习和后勤回归进行比较
L M de Groot1, J W R Twisk1, A A L Kok2
1Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Location VUmc, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Amsterdam Public Health, Methodology Program, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
添加纵向数据的可变性可以改善预测模型. 这种增强的方法对老年人群特别有用,可以提高模型性能,而不仅仅是考虑平均值和随时间变化.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
- 纵向数据分析 纵向数据分析
背景情况:
- 临床预测模型越来越多地利用纵向数据来提高准确性.
- 虽然平均值和随时间的变化是既定的预测因素,但变化性作用的探索较少.
- 机器学习 (ML) 为分析复杂的纵向数据集提供了潜力.
研究的目的:
- 为了评估在纵向模型中纳入预测器变量的预测值.
- 为了比较随机森林,拉索回归和后勤回归在预测抑郁症方面的表现.
- 在不同的建模方法中评估预测器选择,可解释性和性能.
主要方法:
- 采用来自阿姆斯特丹长度衰老研究的81个纵向参数来比较具有和没有预测因子可变性的模型.
- 在70%的数据上训练模型,在30%的数据上验证,在500个随机分割中重复分析.
- 使用曲线下的面积 (AUC),灵敏度,特异性,正预测值 (PPV),负预测值 (NPV) 和校准来评估性能.
主要成果:
- 在所有评估方法中,纳入变异性始终改善了AUC.
- 拉索回归显示高训练AUC但较弱的测试性能;后勤回归和随机森林显示更稳定的结果.
- 预测器选择显示重叠,回归系数通常与随机森林的部分依赖图表保持一致.
结论:
- 机器学习方法在预测性能方面没有超过逻辑回归.
- 将变性整合到纵向预测器中可以显著提高预测的准确性.
- 这种增强的预测特别适用于动态人口,例如人口老龄化.
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