在中国广州市内城市地区使用空间缩小对登革热载体进行细度风险绘制,中国广州市内城市地区的空间缩小
Yunpeng Shen1,2, Zhoupeng Ren2,3, Junfu Fan1
1School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, China.
Insects
|July 29, 2025
概括
这项研究使用遥感数据和随机森林模型创建了细度登革热载体风险地图. 这些地图确定了高风险地区,使得有针对性的城市载体控制干预措施成为可能.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.
背景情况:
- 城市地区蚊子传播疾病的有效媒介控制受到有限资源的挑战.
- 精细的风险映射对于指导有针对性的干预至关重要.
- 现有的风险地图往往缺乏城市内应用所需的空间分辨率.
研究的目的:
- 为了生成城市环境中登革热载体的细度风险地图.
- 使用例行监测数据预测登革热病载体热点区域 (布雷托指数 [BI] ≥ 5).
- 评估数据重新采样技术在改善风险映射的空间缩放方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 综合的每月城镇特定的布雷托指数 (BI) 数据 (广州,2019-2020年) 与遥感和地理空间共变量.
- 开发和优化了一个原始的随机森林 (RF) 模型,其中包括低采样,过量采样和混合采样技术.
- 使用ROC-AUC,回忆,特异性和G-means指标评估模型性能.
- 在1000米网格尺度上生成缩小风险地图.
主要成果:
- 数据重新采样技术显著提高了射频模型的预测准确性.
- 该模型展示了微型电网的强大的空间缩小能力.
- 在城镇内BI热点区域的空间分布中观察到显著的异质性.
- 微量风险绘制方法成功确定了城市内高风险区域.
结论:
- 细度登革热载体风险测绘为有针对性的载体控制提供了关键证据.
- 开发的方法克服了粗规模风险图的局限性.
- 像素级风险评估有助于在城市环境中进行高效和有针对性的公共卫生干预.
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