跨越时间和空间的心脏骤停死亡率:全国性分析与到2035年的预测
Noman Khalid1, Muhammad Abdullah2, Sabrina Clare Higgins3
1Department of Internal Medicine, New York Presbyterian Brooklyn Methodist Hospital, Brooklyn, NY 11215, USA.
Journal of clinical medicine
|July 29, 2025
概括
心脏骤停死亡率急剧下降,直到2001年,然后在上升趋势之前放缓. 未来的预测表明,到2035年,心脏骤停死亡的趋势将稳定,放缓,重点是针对性的公共卫生干预.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
背景情况:
- 心脏骤停 (CA) 是一个重大的公共卫生挑战,死亡率趋势多样化.
- 了解CA死亡模式对于有效的医疗保健规划和干预策略至关重要.
- 本研究分析了从1999年到2023年美国的CA死亡率趋势,并预测了未来的趋势.
研究的目的:
- 分析美国心脏骤停相关死亡率的时间趋势.
- 为了确定心脏骤停死亡率的人口和区域差异.
- 预测到2035年的未来心脏骤停死亡率趋势.
主要方法:
- 在美国 (1999-2023) 分析了365,608例心脏骤停死亡 (ICD-10: I46).
- 年龄调整的死亡率 (AAMR) 标准化为2000年美国人口普查.
- 用于趋势分析的joinpoint回归 (年度百分比变化 - APC) 和用于预测的ARIMA建模.
主要成果:
- 在AAMR急剧下降到2001年 (APC: -10.35%),随后在2013年 (APC: -2.91%),和随后的逐步上升趋势.
- 男性和非洲裔美国人表现出最高的AAMR. 南部地区报告了最高的AAMR.
- 预测分析表明,到2035年,AAMR可能会出现稳定,放缓的下降趋势 (4.28).
结论:
- 心脏骤停死亡率趋势的重大变化需要适应性的公共卫生策略.
- 人口群体和地区之间的死亡率差异需要有针对性的干预措施.
- 未来的预测强调了持续需要强大的医疗保健规划,以减轻心脏骤停的影响.
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