在COVID-19大流行期间,英格兰NHS工作人员的病缺率:从多变量回归和时间序列建模的见解
Ewan McTaggart1, Itamar Megiddo2, John Bowers3
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
PloS one
|July 29, 2025
概括
随着COVID-19大流行,英格兰NHS工作人员的病缺率显著增加,特别是由于COVID-19相关和心理健康原因. 了解这些模式对于危机期间的医疗保健工作人员管理至关重要.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 医疗保健管理的管理
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- COVID-19大流行严重影响了全球的医疗保健系统,导致英格兰NHS的员工因疾病而缺席.
- 有效的劳动力管理策略对于在公共卫生危机期间维持医疗保健服务至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查COVID-19大流行对2020年6月至2022年NHS英格兰员工病缺率的影响.
- 分析疾病缺席的时间模式,并使用各种指标估计与COVID-19相关的缺席.
主要方法:
- 对英格兰NHS工作人员 (2015年1月至2022年9月) 公开可用的病缺数据的分析.
- 开发多变量线性回归模型来估计COVID-19相关的缺席.
- 应用季节性ARIMA时间序列模型来分析与心理健康相关的缺席.
主要成果:
- 英格兰NHS工作人员的病缺率随着COVID-19大流行的开始和进展而显著增加.
- 高度COVID-19活动期间与员工缺勤增加有很强的相关性,主要是在COVID-19相关和心理健康类别.
- 多变量线性回归和季节性ARIMA模型准确估计了这些缺席,COVID-19指标提供了对感染途径的见解.
结论:
- 随着COVID-19大流行,英格兰NHS的员工因病缺席数量大幅增加,原因包括传染病和心理健康因素.
- 准确估计这些缺席的模型对于卫生危机期间的劳动力管理至关重要.
- 需要量身定制的战略来应对传染病和心理健康相关的缺席在医疗机构在未来的危机期间,以提高系统的弹性.
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