生活方式因素和结肠直肠癌的预测:一个基于名图的模型
Wooin Seo1, Se Young Jung2,3,4,5, Yeonhoon Jang1
1Office of Hospital Information, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, Republic of Korea.
BMC cancer
|July 29, 2025
概括
生活方式因素显著预测结直肠癌 (CRC) 风险. 使用生活方式数据的基于年龄的模型有助于识别更高风险的个体,使得针对性干预能够预防CRC.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 预防医学 预防医学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 生活方式因素是结直肠癌 (CRC) 风险的关键因素.
- 以前的模型往往缺乏全面的生活方式整合.
- 这项研究解决了个性化CRC风险评估的需求.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个基于年龄的结直肠癌风险预测模型.
- 在CRC风险评估中纳入重要的生活方式因素.
- 为早期识别和干预提供一个工具.
主要方法:
- 使用了国家医疗保险服务-国家样本队列数据库.
- 包括383,956名年龄在20岁以上或60岁以上的参与者,调查时间为2009-2012年.
- 用LASSO回归和Cox比例危险模型来选择危险因素和10年CRC发病率预测.
主要成果:
- 在所有年龄组中,更高的基于名录的风险得分与CRC发病概率增加相关.
- 模型表现出适度的区分能力 (一致性指数为0.60-0.70).
- 校准图和卡普兰-梅尔分析证实了模型的准确性和风险分层.
结论:
- 生活方式因素是CRC发病率的重要预测因素,年龄特定的变化.
- 基于Nomogram的风险评分提供了一个定制的方法来激励生活方式的修改.
- 这个模型可以帮助个性化CRC预防策略.
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