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整合气候变化和微型息地适宜性,以评估中国埃梅山两动物范围的变化
Zijian Sun1, Tian Zhao2,3, Suwen Hu1
1College of Fisheries, Southwest University, Chongqing, 400715, China.
Frontiers in zoology
|July 30, 2025
概括
气候变化威胁着山区的两动物息地. 未来的预测表明适合低地地区的减少,需要针对这些脆弱物种进行有针对性的保护工作.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在导致息地转移,特别是影响山区生物多样性.
- 两动物对山区生态系统至关重要,但由于其有限的机动性和温度依赖性,它们对气候变化非常脆弱.
- 了解两动物范围的变化对于当地保护计划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了模拟中国埃梅山适合两动物息地的当前分布.
- 确定影响两生物息地适宜性的关键环境因素.
- 为了预测未来气候变化场景下的两动物范围的潜在变化.
主要方法:
- 组合建模用于分析当前两动物息地分布.
- 确定了环境决定因素,包括植被指数和气候变量.
- 在不同的气候场景下,对2055年和2085年的潜在范围变化进行了预测.
主要成果:
- 低地地区,特别是城市和森林地区之间的过渡区,显示出更高的现有息地适合两动物.
- 两动物分布与正常化差异植被指数,降水和太阳辐射相关.
- 尽管息地适合性预计总体下降,特别是在低地郊区,在高排放场景下,人为因素与当前两生物分布有积极的相关性.
结论:
- 确定了当前两动物息地适合性的关键决定因素.
- 在未来的气候变化下,预计埃梅山的两动物息地适宜性总体会显著下降.
- 未来的研究应该纳入两动物的分散限制和生态特征,以准确地预测范围转移和保护策略.
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