建立一个基于拉索-逻辑回归的门泄漏术后直肠下部癌症风险预测模型
Zhenhao Quan1, Lin Lin1, Renwei Huang1
1Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, No. 57 South Renmin Avenue, Xiashan District, Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province, 524001, China.
BMC gastroenterology
|July 30, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了一种名图,用于预测低直肠癌手术后的静脉漏 (AL). 该模型使用了性别和瘤距离等因素,显示了高准确性和临床实用性,用于预测AL风险.
科学领域:
- 结肠直肠手术 结肠直肠手术
- 手术瘤学手术瘤学
- 预测建模预测建模
背景情况:
- 静脉漏 (AL) 是直肠下部癌症手术后的一个重大并发症.
- 准确预测AL风险对于患者管理和改善外科手术结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个名谱模型,用于预测在接受低直肠癌手术的患者中术后解漏 (AL) 的风险.
- 通过拉索逻辑回归来确定AL的关键影响因素.
主要方法:
- 对609名患者 (482名培训,127名验证) 的回顾性分析,这些患者接受了低直肠癌手术.
- 使用拉索-逻辑回归来确定训练组中AL的显著预测因素.
- 使用已识别的因素构建了一个名图,并对歧视和校准进行了验证.
主要成果:
- 对AL的关键预测因素包括性别,NRS2002分数,保护性静脉管,瘤到门边缘的距离,以及手术时间.
- 在训练和验证组中,名图显示出优异的区别 (AUC=0.940) 和良好的校准.
- 决策曲线分析表明,在一系列风险值中,临床效用和净益率很高.
结论:
- 性别,NRS2002分数,转移口腔,瘤-门距离和手术时间是影响低直肠癌术后AL的重要因素.
- 开发的基于Lasso-Logistic回归的诺姆图是预测AL风险的可靠工具,提供了高一致性,区别性和临床适用性.
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