评估环境和管理变量对山地草原产量和料质量的影响,使用随机森林模型
Adrián Jarne1, Asunción Usón1, Ramón Reiné1
1Departamento de Ciencias Agrarias y del Medio Natural, Escuela Politécnica Superior, Universidad de Zaragoza, Ctra Cuarte s/n, 22071 Huesca, Spain.
Plants (Basel, Switzerland)
|July 30, 2025
概括
优化草地生产率需要平衡气候和管理. 春季早期的降雨增加了产量,而收获时间对料蛋白质和料价值产生了重大影响.
科学领域:
- 农业学是一种农业学.
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 草原的生产力和营养质量受到季节性气候模式和农业实践的重大影响.
- 温带草地对牲畜至关重要,但由于环境的变化,它们的产量可能无法预测.
研究的目的:
- 量化环境,管理和植被变量对花草草地生物质产量,蛋白质含量和相对料价值 (RFV) 的影响.
- 确定优化禾草草地生产和料质量的关键预测因素.
主要方法:
- 分析了西班牙比利尼斯山脉15个花草草的五年数据 (2019年,2020年,2022年至2024年).
- 利用随机森林回归与交叉验证以模型产量,蛋白质和RFV.
- 评估了环境 (温度,降雨量),管理 (施肥,牲畜,切割日期) 和植被 (生物多样性) 因素的重要变量.
主要成果:
- 3月份的降雨是生物质产量的主要驱动因素 (R2=0.802).
- 切割日期显著影响了蛋白质含量 (R2=0.786) 和RFV (R2=0.718).
- 适度的牲畜密度和较低的春季温度对料质量产生了积极的影响;更高的生物多样性提供了轻微的好处,而不会造成产量损失.
结论:
- 适应性管理策略,包括春季早期的水分保护和及时收获,对于最大限度地提高草场产量和质量至关重要.
- 保持植物多样性和适当的放牧强度可以在变化的气候条件下提高料价值.
- 研究结果为优化温带草原管理提供了一个框架,无论是数量还是质量.
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