连续的SARS-CoV-2变种住院时间的多尺度建模:一个多州预测框架
Minchan Choi1, Jungeun Kim2, Heesung Kim3
1Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104, Republic of Korea.
Viruses
|July 30, 2025
概括
与早期菌株相比,COVID-19患者住院时间在Omicron变种阶段显著减少. 在所有SARS-CoV-2变种期间,老年人始终经历了更长的住院时间.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
背景情况:
- 住院时间 (LoS) 是医疗保健系统能力规划的关键指标.
- 了解LoS动态对于预测呼吸道病毒传播至关重要,包括SARS-CoV-2.
- 连续的SARS-CoV-2变种可能会影响患者的LoS和医疗保健资源利用.
研究的目的:
- 量化和比较COVID-19患者在不同SARS-CoV-2变种阶段的住院时间 (LoS).
- 分析不同变异时期基于患者年龄组的LoS变化.
- 为医院的资源分配和患者管理策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 一个回顾性分析的1249个COVID-19病人的记录从Chungbuk国家大学医院 (2021-2023).
- 利用马分布的多态模型来捕捉半临床和重症监护病房之间的过渡.
- 纳入的SARS-CoV-2变种阶段 (delta前,delta,omicron) 和年龄 (0-39岁,40-64岁,65岁以上) 作为共变量,参数通过最大概率估计.
主要成果:
- 与Delta前和Delta阶段 (10-14天) 相比,Omicron变种阶段与较短的LoS (5-8天) 相关.
- 年轻的成年人 (0-39岁) 的LOS比老年人更短 (3-5天).
- 最老的队列 (65岁以上) 经历了最长的入院时间,有时超过30天.
结论:
- COVID-19患者的LoS随着连续的变异而下降,特别是在Omicron阶段,这表明改善了治疗方法或减少了毒性.
- 年龄仍然是COVID-19LoS的一个重要因素,老年患者需要更长时间的住院治疗.
- 这些发现支持将变种特定的LoS数据集成到实时床位管理系统中,以优化医疗保健资源规划.
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