武装冲突如何影响移民
Nathalie E Williams1, Michelle L O'Brien2, Xiaozheng Yao3
1University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
Population and development review
|July 30, 2025
概括
冲突移民是复杂的. 这项研究使用了基于尼泊尔数据的代理模型,发现虽然外移民率下降,但由于冲突而生活在该国以外的人口总数略有增加.
科学领域:
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 强迫移民研究 强迫移民研究
- 进行冲突分析.
背景情况:
- 有大量关于武装冲突期间移民的文献.
- 关于冲突引发移民规模的关键政策相关问题仍未得到解决.
- 了解人口动态对于分析与冲突有关的流离失所至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 探索武装冲突造成的移民流动和人口数量的规模.
- 在冲突期间连接个人的行为变化,以汇总迁移模式.
- 解决有关冲突驱动人口流动的相关政策问题.
主要方法:
- 使用基于代理的模型 (ABM),一种计算模拟方法.
- 尼泊尔1996-2006年冲突时期的综合详细数据.
- 将微观层面的行为变化与宏观层面的迁移动态联系起来.
主要成果:
- 在冲突期间观察到平均外迁率的下降.
- 主要归因于返回移民的减少.
- 在冲突期间,在该国境外居住的移民数量略有增加.
结论:
- 人口动态是理解冲突相关移民的重要组成部分.
- 基于代理的建模为研究冲突引发的移民提供了有价值的框架.
- 调查结果对有关冲突和流离失所的政策制定有影响.
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