探索在德国基于发病率的风险调整中使用受约束回归
Florian Renker1, Dennis Häckl2, Amelie Wuppermann3
1SBK Siemens-Betriebskrankenkasse, Munich, Germany. Florian.Renker@SBK.org.
概括
约束回归可以通过减少特定注册人群的过低和过度补偿来改善德国医疗保险风险调整. 这些补偿问题的部分消除显示出更好的模型适合的希望.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 保险数学是保险数学的基础.
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 风险调整计划旨在公平地补偿医疗计划的注册医疗费用.
- 目前的计划往往导致对某些注册人群的补偿不足或过度.
- 由于未被观察的身份,一些入学群体无法直接纳入风险调整.
研究的目的:
- 在德国基于发病率的风险调整计划中探索受约束回归的应用.
- 评估受约束回归的潜力,以减轻不足/过度补偿问题.
- 评估部分或完全消除约束对模型性能的影响.
主要方法:
- 将受约束回归技术应用于德国风险调整模型.
- 分析技术可行性和性能改进.
- 对不同约束级别进行比较,以解决不足/过度补偿的问题.
主要成果:
- 在德国的风险调整体系中,受约束回归在技术上是可行的.
- 该方法显示,与当前的基本模型相比,该方法有可能改善整体过低/过度补偿.
- 通过约束来部分消除不足/过度补偿可能会提高个体模型的适应性.
结论:
- 约束回归提供了一种可行的方法来完善德国的风险调整计划.
- 约束回归的有效性特别值得注意,当目标是部分而不是全部的补偿调整时.
- 关于将集团纳入整体补偿措施的纳入标准,需要进一步的政策讨论.
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