极端温度对死亡率和发病率的影响不同
Carlos F Gould1, Sam Heft-Neal2, Alexandra K Heaney1
1School of Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
Science advances
|July 30, 2025
概括
气候变化将增加因高温而增加急诊室的访问,但可能会减少因寒冷而导致的死亡. 了解温度与发病率的联系对于预测未来的健康负担和医疗保健需求至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候变化影响气候变化的影响.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 全球气温上升预计将增加死亡率,但对发病率的影响仍未得到充分研究.
- 现有的研究主要集中在温度与死亡率之间的关系上,对气候变化对疾病和医疗保健利用的影响的关注较少.
研究的目的:
- 调查温度对健康结果的差异性影响,包括急诊室访问,住院和死亡率.
- 分析年龄分布和潜在的健康状况如何影响各种健康结果的温度反应功能.
主要方法:
- 利用加利福尼亚州从2006年到2017年的日常温度,急诊室访问,住院和死亡率的纵向数据.
- 分析了不同健康结果的温度反应函数,考虑到人口和流行病学因素.
主要成果:
- 预计未来的变暖表明,急诊室的访问量将增加.
- 尽管可能会增加与热有关的疾病,但由于与寒冷有关的死亡人数减少,整体死亡率可能会下降.
- 在整个健康结果 (发病率与死亡率) 中观察到温度反应功能的明显差异.
结论:
- 量化温度与发病率的关系对于全面了解气候变化对健康的影响至关重要.
- 预计与温度相关的死亡率下降可能会掩盖患病率和医疗保健利用率的显著增加.
- 未来的公共卫生战略必须解决温度驱动的发病率和死亡率,以减轻气候变化对健康的全部负担.
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