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在PBPK模型中选择参数子集的特性变化和不确定性.
Celia M Schacht1, Dustin F Kapraun1, Annabel E Meade2
1Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, 27711, United States.
基于生理学上的药理动力学 (PBPK) 模型估计人类等效剂量 (HED). 全球敏感性分析 (GSA) 有助于确定影响极端HED百分位数的关键参数,以改善风险评估.
科学领域:
- 药理动力学和毒理学建模.
- 计算毒理学和风险评估.
- 环境健康科学 环境健康科学
背景情况:
- 基于生理学的药理动力学 (PBPK) 模型模拟化学物质的吸收,分布,新陈代谢和分泌.
- 概率PBPK模型使用蒙特卡洛采样生成人类等效剂量 (HED) 分布.
- 极端HED百分值对于评估敏感人群中的风险至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发方法来识别PBPK模型中影响极端HED百分位数的有影响力的参数.
- 评估参数分布不确定性对HED估计的影响.
- 使用PBPK建模来提高风险评估的可靠性.
主要方法:
- 全球敏感性分析 (GSA) 应用于已发布的二甲和的PBPK模型.
- 分析包括不同内部目标水平的吸入和口服暴露场景.
- 使用一种新的方法来评估极端HED百分位数对参数分布的灵敏度.
主要成果:
- GSA确定了对第1个和第99个HED百分位数显著影响的参数子集.
- 具体的影响参数在不同的模型和暴露条件上有所不同.
- 在有影响力的参数中表征不确定性可以增加对极端HED百分位数估计的信心.
结论:
- 全球灵敏度分析有效地确定了极端HED百分位数的关键PBPK模型参数.
- 对于GSA识别的参数,准确的分布数据可以提高风险评估的准确性.
- 通过对敏感性进行参数化来改进PBPK模型,提高了对评估化学物质暴露风险的信心.
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