估计赞比亚3个城市内注射毒品的人口规模:捕获-重新捕获,连续采样和贝叶斯共识估计方法
Lauren Parmley1,2, Giles Reid3, Joyce J Neal4
1Strategic Information Unit, ICAP at Columbia University, New York, NY, United States.
JMIR public health and surveillance
|July 30, 2025
概括
对赞比亚注射毒品的人群规模的准确估计 (PSE) 使用多种方法生成. 这些发现对于为该地区的艾滋病毒预防和治疗计划提供信息至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 准确的人口规模估计 (PSE) 对于艾滋病毒预防和治疗计划至关重要,特别是对于注射毒品的人 (PWID) 等关键人群.
- 赞比亚关于PWID的有限可靠数据阻碍了有效的公共卫生反应.
- 估计隐藏种群的大小带来了重大的方法挑战.
研究的目的:
- 估计赞比亚三个主要城市内注射毒品的人口规模 (PWID).
- 为了比较来自不同估计方法的PSE变异性.
- 探索用于估计PWID种群的每个应用方法的优点和局限性.
主要方法:
- 应用2源捕获-再捕获 (2S-CRC),3源捕获-再捕获 (3S-CRC) 和连续采样人口大小估计 (SS-PSE) 方法.
- 3S-CRC结合了基于位置的2S-CRC与受访者驱动的采样 (RDS) 调查.
- 分析使用贝叶斯的非参数隐性类模型和贝叶斯的最终城市PSE的共识估计器.
主要成果:
- 对PWID的贝叶斯共识PSE在卢萨卡,恩多拉和利文斯通的成年男性人口中介于0.5%至1.8%.
- 卢萨卡 (3700人) 的估计最高,其次是恩多拉 (2200人) 和利文斯通 (1200人).
- 在各种方法中观察到估计的变化,SS-PSE通常产生较低的数字. 通过2S-CRC捕获的RDS参与者表现出与仅通过RDS获得的不同特征.
结论:
- 这项研究为赞比亚主要地区的PWID提供了第一个严格的PSE.
- 在3S-CRC中整合RDS改善了对多样化的PWID特征的覆盖范围,提高了共识估计.
- 这些发现为赞比亚的公共卫生计划规划和未来监测活动提供了宝贵的指导.
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