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大型跨境河流盆地水气极端的未来变化使用多模型偏差校正CMIP6预测

Kh M Anik Rahaman¹, Md Saiduzzaman^1,2, Akm Saiful Islam³

¹Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh.

Environmental science and pollution research international

|July 30, 2025

概括

气候变化正在加剧上梅格纳盆地的水气极端情况. 这项研究项目增加了高流量,减少了低流量,突出了数百万人的洪水和缺水风险.

科学领域:

水文和气候科学水文和气候科学
环境建模环境建模
水资源管理水资源管理

背景情况:

上梅格纳盆地 (UMB) 是孟加拉国和印度共享的跨境水域,由于气候变化而面临越来越多的水气候极端.
这些极端因素对生活在盆地的数百万人的生计产生了重大影响.
之前对UMB的研究并没有利用最新的CMIP6气候预测,也没有如此详细地评估未来的水文变化.

研究的目的:

在不同的气候变化情景下 (SSP2-4.5和SSP3-7.0) 创新地评估UMB降雨量,温度,高流量和低流量的未来变化.
分析洪水频率的变化以及近期和远期超标的可能性.
通过在UMB环境中首次应用绩效排名整体方法来减少预测中的不确定性.

主要方法:

利用土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 模型来模拟水文过程.
强迫SWAT模型与偏差纠正的合模型对比项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 预测.
采用性能排名整体方法来提高投影可靠性.

主要成果:

预计到本世纪末将出现显著的水文变化,季风降雨将更加强烈,夏季气温将上升.
预计100年回报期高流量的显著增加:17.5%15.3% (近期) 和28.3%29.9% (远期) 在SSP2-4.5和SSP3-7.0.0下.
预计100年回报期的低流量下降:在SSP2-4.5和SSP3-7.0.0下,12.8%6.5% (近期) 和5.3%的减少,在SSP2-4.5和SSP3-7.0.1下增加7.1% (远期).

结论:

随着特定的气候条件和排放路径,UMB面临极端洪水和季节性低流量短缺的未来风险.
政策干预,如早期预警系统,洪水平原区划和干旱管理,对于社区的抗灾能力至关重要.
缓解气候变化的努力对于制UMB的长期水文干扰至关重要,这是各个排放场景的结果差异表明的.

关键词:

在CMIP6和EQM偏差纠正中使用CMIP6和EQM偏差纠正.气候变化气候变化气候变化极端降水,温度和流量流动梅格纳盆地梅格纳盆地这是一个SWAT模型.

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