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利用生物启发的算法,在气候变化中实现最佳水库运行,中国的案例研究

Qiong Li^1,2, Hang Zhou^3,4, Ali Shirzad^5,6

¹School of Mathematics and Physics, Hubei Polytechnic University, Huangshi, 435000, China.

Scientific reports

|July 31, 2025

概括

气候变化影响水库的流入. 这项研究结合了SWAT,Caps-Net和MSOA,以预测未来的流入量,并优化水库规则曲线,提高在可变气候条件下的水安全.

科学领域:

水文和气候科学水文和气候科学
水资源管理水资源管理
环境建模中的人工智能

背景情况:

气候变化对水库的流入模式产生重大影响,给水资源管理和运营稳定带来挑战.
现有的水库管理策略可能无法充分解决未来气候变化和不断变化的水文条件带来的不确定性.

研究的目的:

通过先进的建模技术,开发和验证气候适应性水库管理的创新框架.
根据气候变化情景预测未来的水库流入量,并评估它们对水资源可用性的影响.
优化水库规则曲线,以提高水源安全,降低气候变化中的运营风险.

主要方法:

混合模型将土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 与囊神经网络 (Caps-Net) 集成,用于流入预测.
根据共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下调的CMIP6气候预测被用于模拟未来的气候场景.
修改后的海优化算法 (MSOA) 应用于根据预测的流入量和风险评估来调整和改进水库规则曲线.

主要成果:

综合模型在各种气候变化情景下成功预测了减少的年度流入量,平均减少范围从8.43%到31.66%.
来自MSOA的优化水库规则曲线表明,在潮湿时期水储量有所改善,在干旱期间释放量增加,减轻了洪水和干旱风险.
与传统的优化方法相比,MSOA表现出更高的性能,提供更快的融合,增强的搜索功能,以及多目标优化更高的准确性.

结论:

开发的框架为气候变化地区的水库管理提供了强大而适应性的解决方案,增强了水安全.
由MSOA优化的适应性水库规则曲线对于在预计气候变化影响下最大限度地减少洪水和干旱风险至关重要.
将人工智能驱动的优化与水文建模的整合为面对气候挑战的可持续水资源管理提供了显著的优势.

关键词:

在CIMP6中,CIMP6是CIMP6.这就是Caps-Net.气候变化气候变化气候变化修改过的海优化算法储规则曲线的规则曲线特别突击队的特种部队.

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