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将水资源系统适应不断变化的未来:21世纪英国水文学的挑战
1Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
概括
水文科学需要取得重大进展,以应对21世纪英国的水资源管理挑战. 改进的流域建模对于基于证据的水资源决策至关重要,考虑到环境压力和干预措施.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 水资源管理水资源的管理.
背景情况:
- 全球水生环境面临着巨大的压力,需要水资源管理者做出复杂的决策.
- 有效的水分配,环境恢复和财务资源管理取决于对未来的流域变化的科学理解.
- 英国目前的水文科学不足以满足21世纪管理水量和水质的证据需求.
研究的目的:
- 评估英国水文科学与21世纪水资源管理挑战的现状.
- 确定对采水区流程和干预影响建模能力的关键差距.
- 倡导对水文建模进行根本性的改进,以便有效地管理水资源.
主要方法:
- 审查当前的水文研究及其决策方向.
- 分析增强观测技术 (如地球观测) 和数据驱动方法的影响.
- 提倡增强模拟能力,以应对复杂的采集区反应和管理干预措施.
主要成果:
- 虽然观察和数据驱动方法的进步正在改变水文学,但它们还不够.
- 需要显著提高对采集流程建模能力.
- 目前的水文科学不足以提供必要的证据,以在复杂的未来情景下管理英国的水资源.
结论:
- 英国水文科学需要进行根本性的改进,才能在21世纪有效管理水资源.
- 加强流域流程和干预影响的建模是必不可少的.
- 弥合水文科学,政策和实践之间的差距对于解决水资源挑战至关重要.
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