2013-2021年中国癌症死亡率趋势和到2030年的预测
Xin Liang1, Yifei Yao2, Xiang Li2
1Medical Statistics Office, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100021, China.
中国的癌症死亡率正在下降,但人口老龄化和城乡差异带来了挑战. 未来的预测表明,整体病例率将继续下降,但到2030年,癌症死亡人数预计将达到240万.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 在瘤学瘤学.
背景情况:
- 癌症仍然是全球和中国的重大公共卫生问题.
- 了解癌症死亡率的时间趋势和未来预测对于有效的公共卫生政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析2013-2021年中国癌症死亡率的时间趋势.
- 预测到2030年中国未来的癌症死亡率趋势.
- 为了确定人口和风险因素对癌症负担的贡献.
主要方法:
- 利用了中国死亡原因监测数据集 (2.37亿人年).
- 使用Joinpoint回归计算的年龄标准化死亡率 (ASMR).
- 采用贝叶斯年龄周期队列模型进行预测和分解分析,以量化负担.
主要成果:
- 综合的ASMR每年下降2.3%,食道,胃和肝癌的病例显著下降.
- 胰腺癌和前列腺癌的ASMR显示年增幅分别为2.0%和3.4%.
- 城市地区的ASMR下降速度比农村地区快;人口老龄化对死亡人数的增加做出了重大贡献.
结论:
- 中国的癌症负担受到人口老龄化和城乡差距的影响.
- 优先考虑农村查,风险因素控制 (吸烟,饮食) 和综合预防计划至关重要.
- 预计未来的癌症死亡率将下降,但到2030年,总死亡人数可能达到240万.
更多相关视频
06:46Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Multiple Primary Colorectal Cancer Patients after Surgery
Published on: September 27, 2024
12:24A Three-Dimensional Spheroid Model to Investigate the Tumor-Stromal Interaction in Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Published on: September 30, 2021
相关概念视频
Cancer Survival Analysis
Targeted Cancer Therapies
There are several types of targeted therapies against...
Actuarial Approach
Consider the example of a high-risk surgical procedure with significant early-stage mortality. A two-year clinical study is conducted,...
Tumor Progression
Colon cancer is one of the best-documented examples of tumor progression. Early mutation in the APC gene in colon cells causes a small growth on the colon wall called a polyp. With time, this polyp grows into a benign, pre-cancerous tumor. Further...
Mouse Models of Cancer Study
The development of transgenic, knockout, and knock-in mice has led to an exponential increase in their use as model organisms in research,...
Cancers Originate from Somatic Mutations in a Single Cell
