中国贵阳空气污染与非意外死亡率之间的关联:时间序列分析 (2013-2023)
Xuanhao Chen1, Minmin Su1, Minlan Yuan1
1Guizhou Center For Disease Control And Prevention, Guizhou, China.
Frontiers in public health
|July 31, 2025
概括
空气污染在贵阳显著增加了非意外死亡人数,二氧化硫和二氧化构成最大的风险. 老年人和女性对特定污染物的脆弱性增加,特别是在寒冷的月份.
科学领域:
- 环境健康科学 环境健康科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 毒理学 毒理学 毒理学
背景情况:
- 空气污染是全球主要的环境健康风险.
- 之前的研究还没有明确定义空气污染物与贵阳非意外死亡率之间的联系.
研究的目的:
- 调查阳特定空气污染物暴露与非意外死亡率之间的关联.
- 确定空气污染相关死亡的脆弱人群和时间模式.
主要方法:
- 使用了一个时间分层的案例交叉设计.
- 在一个通用添加模型 (GAM) 框架内的准松回归分析了污染与死亡率的关联.
- 模型考虑了滞后效应,时间趋势,气象因素和周日.
主要成果:
- 二氧化硫 (SO2) 和二氧化 (NO2) 与非意外死亡风险的增加有显著关联,其影响在滞后1.0时达到顶峰.
- 颗粒物 (PM2.5,PM10) 和一氧化碳 (CO) 也增加了死亡风险.
- 对于SO2的女性,PM2.5的男性,65岁以上的个人,以及所有污染物的寒冷季节,观察到女性的风险增加.
结论:
- 特定的空气污染物具有明显的滞后结构和对非意外死亡率的累积影响.
- 性别和年龄会影响对空气污染的易感性,老年人尤其容易受到影响.
- 空气污染对贵阳的公共卫生构成重大威胁,需要有针对性的干预措施.
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