与暴露相关的缺血性中风的全球负担:基于贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列分析
Xiaofang Chen1, Lihua Zhao1, Xiaxia Wu1
1Department of Neurosurgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China.
暴露在全球显著影响缺血性中风,不成比例地影响低收入地区的男性和老年人. 未来的趋势表明,男性的患病负担正在下降,但女性的病例稳定.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 神经学 神经学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 暴露是与缺血性中风相关的严重公共卫生问题.
- 了解与暴露相关的缺血性中风的全球负担和趋势对于有针对性的干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析当前全球暴露相关缺血性中风的负担.
- 检查1990年至2019年的趋势,并预测未来的模式.
- 确定疾病负担的人口和区域差异.
主要方法:
- 全球疾病负担 (GBD) 2019年数据集的分析.
- 使用线性回归 (EAPC) 进行趋势分析 (1990-2019).
- 采用集群分析和贝叶斯年龄周期队列 (BAPC) 建模用于模式识别和未来预测.
主要成果:
- 2019年,与暴露相关的缺血性中风最严重的是男性和老年人,特别是在中/低中SDI地区.
- 根据年龄标准化的比率显示出上升和下降的模式,而绝对病例从1990年至2019年增加.
- 高SDI地区经历了负担下降;BAPC预测女性病例稳定但病率下降,男性指标下降.
结论:
- 与暴露相关的缺血性中风代表着一个重大的全球健康挑战.
- 研究结果强调需要改进监测,预防和治疗策略.
- 需要采取紧急行动,以减轻暴露对缺血性中风负担的影响.
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