积极的出版偏差影响的平衡审查
1Department of Health Policy and Administration, Penn State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Accountability in research
|July 31, 2025
概括
积极的出版偏见,有利于显著的结果,可以提高发表的研究的真实阳性率,而不会大幅增加虚假阳性. 如果研究人员有能力地行动,这种偏见本质上并不有害.
科学领域:
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 研究完整性研究完整性
- 科学出版业的科学出版.
背景情况:
- 积极的出版偏见,有利于拒绝虚假假设的研究,通常被视为对研究质量有害.
- 这种观点可能过分简化了选择偏见和假设测试结果之间的复杂关系.
研究的目的:
- 调查出版偏差对统计学显著结果对已发表文献中真假阳性率的影响.
- 评估这种偏见是否在各种条件下对研究企业本质上有害.
主要方法:
- 采用理论建模来模拟研究场景,其中真零假设的比例不同.
- 这些模型检查了增加对发表统计学意义重大发现的偏见如何影响发表的研究的整体积极预测价值.
主要成果:
- 即使大多数零假设是正确的,对发表重大结果的偏好也会大大增加发表的真正结果的比例.
- 这种偏见只会轻微膨胀公布的虚假阳性的比例,前提是研究保持合理的显著程度和统计能力.
结论:
- 观察到的正面出版偏差对研究企业本身并不有害.
- 当出版商和研究人员有能力和诚信地工作,平衡重要发现的出版时,这种情况是正确的.
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