一个模型的外部验证,用于预测早产新生儿的结果
Laura Routier1,2, Sarah Touati1,3, Ghida Ghostine-Ramadan1,3
1INSERM UMR 1105, Research Group on Multimodal Analysis of Brain Function, University of Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France.
JAMA network open
|July 31, 2025
概括
这项研究验证了PRETERM-POM模型,用于预测极度早产新生儿的神经发育障碍. 该模型的准确性很高,证实了其用于指导管理和康复的临床实用性.
科学领域:
- 新生儿医学 新生儿医学
- 发育儿科 发育儿科
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 预测早产新生儿的结果对于量身定制的治疗策略和康复至关重要.
- 预测模型提供了一个有希望的途径,但需要强有力的验证可靠性和通用性.
研究的目的:
- 为了外部验证PRETERM-POM,这是一种多式预后模型,旨在预测两岁极度早产婴儿的结果.
主要方法:
- 使用了在2018-2021年间出生的早产婴儿 (23-28周妊娠年龄) 的时间验证组.
- 应用了PRETERM-POM模型的参数来预测通过丹佛发育查测试II评估的神经发育结果 (有利或不利).
- 统计分析包括AUC,DeLong测试,大尺度校准,校准曲线,Hosmer-Lemeshow测试和Brier分数.
主要成果:
- 验证组包括104名婴儿 (中位妊娠年龄为26.3周).
- PRETERM-POM模型在结果预测方面实现了85.9%的AUC,与发展队列相比.
- 该模型显示出很好的适应性,但倾向于低估不良结果的风险.
结论:
- 外部验证证实了PRETERM-POM模型在预测早产婴儿神经发育障碍方面的高性能.
- 这种多模式的方法,具有透明的风险因素贡献,支持其临床应用及时管理决策.
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