改善的HDI是否会引发中国的旅游外流? 来自ARDL联合整合方法的新证据
Ahsan Akbar1,2, Farrukh Nawaz3, Xie Hui4
1International Business School, Guangzhou City University of Technology, Guangzhou, China.
PloS one
|July 31, 2025
概括
中国不断上升的人类发展指数 (HDI) 显著促进了出境旅游. 预期寿命,收入和教育的改善推动了旅游业的增长,使中国和接收国都受益.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 旅游学研究 旅游学研究
- 人类发展 人类发展
背景情况:
- 现有的研究主要研究了入境旅游的经济影响,忽视了出境旅游的驱动因素.
- 出境旅游对于东道国的发展,跨文化理解和国家善意至关重要.
- 了解影响出境旅游的因素对于可持续发展和国际关系至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究中国的人类发展指数 (HDI) 与出境旅游之间的关系.
- 量化HDI改善对来自中国的旅游外流的影响.
主要方法:
- 采用了中国1995-2020年的时间序列数据.
- 采用自行回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 模型来分析短期和长期关系.
- 检查了个人HDI组件 (预期寿命,收入,教育) 的影响.
主要成果:
- 中国的HDI与旅游外流之间存在积极而显著的关系.
- 人民发展指数增加1个单位与旅游外流增加5.25%相关.
- 预期寿命,人均收入和教育是中国出境旅游的主要驱动力.
结论:
- 人类发展是中国出境旅游业增长的关键决定因素.
- 政策建议涉及利用人类发展为旅游业带动的目的地国家的经济增长.
- 调查结果强调了人力资本发展和国际旅游业的相互联系.
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