在气候变化下的接收环境中抗生素耐药性的传播:一个建模练习
Madusanka Thilakarathne1, Venkataramana Sridhar1, Karen Kline1
1Biological Systems Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA.
Journal of environmental management
|July 31, 2025
概括
一个新的模型,SWAT-ARB,模拟了河流中的抗生素耐药性. 结果显示,温度显著影响耐药细菌水平,在不同的河流盆地和气候场景中产生不同的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水质建模水质建模
- 微生物学 微生物学
背景情况:
- 河流中的抗生素耐药性是一个日益严重的全球性问题,由废水处理厂 (WWTP) 含有抗生素,ARG和ARB的废水驱动.
- 现有的流域规模模型通常不适合模拟抗生素耐药性动态.
- 了解影响水生生态系统抗生素耐药性的因素对于公共卫生和环境管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 引入和验证SWAT-ARB模型,以模拟流域规模的大肠杆菌对抗生素的耐药性.
- 分析温度和流量对不同河流流域 (阿代尔河,溪,上维斯坎) 的抗性分数的影响.
- 预测未来气候情景对抗生素耐药性水平的影响.
主要方法:
- 调整土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 以创建用于模拟抗生素耐药细菌 (ARB) 的SWAT-ARB模型.
- 将SWAT-ARB应用于三个不同的WWTP接收环境:印度的Adyar河流域,美国的Crab Creek和瑞典的Upper Viskan流域.
- 在各种流量条件和温度变化下对模拟耐药分数 (耐药大肠杆菌和总大肠杆菌) 的分析,包括未来气候场景 (SSP 2-4.5,SSP 5-8.5).
主要成果:
- 阿迪亚尔和溪的耐药分数主要受到温度的影响,而上维斯坎则表现出温度和流量的影响.
- 温度上升2°C导致了各种各样的耐药分数变化:在Adyar下降 (高达17%),在Crab Creek上升 (17.5-24.1%),并在Upper Viskan上升 (4.6-33.5%).
- 未来的气候场景预计会发生重大变化:随着气温的上升,Adyar的耐药分量减少到55.5%,而Crab Creek的耐药分量在最佳生长范围内增加到175%.
结论:
- SWAT-ARB模型有效模拟流域规模的抗生素耐药性,提供对环境影响的洞察力.
- 温度是水生系统中调节抗生素耐药性的关键因素,具有复杂的,盆地特定的反应.
- 建议通过结合温度依赖的参数来进一步改进模型,以提高预测抗生素耐药性趋势的准确性.
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