从常规医院数据估计护士工作量使用预测模型:算法开发和验证
Paul Meredith1,2, Christina Saville1,2, Chiara Dall'Ora1,2
1School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Southampton, Building 67, University Road, Southampton, S017 1BJ, United Kingdom, 44 23 8059 5903, 44 23 8059 8909.
JMIR medical informatics
|July 31, 2025
概括
一个算法可以使用常规数据估计护理工作量,减少护士的行政任务. 这种方法有助于实时监控护士人员需求,并提高效率.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健管理的管理
- 护理信息学 护理信息学
- 预测分析是一种预测分析.
背景情况:
- 护士人员管理是复杂的,受患者需求,敏度和依赖度波动的影响.
- 实时监控护士人员充足程度对于安全有效的员工部署至关重要.
- 目前用于工作量测量的患者分类系统 (PCS) 需要护理人员频繁的行政投入.
研究的目的:
- 探索一个算法的潜力,以估计病房工作量.
- 确定是否可以使用例行记录的数据来估计工作负载.
主要方法:
- 利用英国一家医院的匿名入院记录和PCS评估 (2017年2月至2020年2月).
- 开发了一个使用常规记录的行政数据和国家早期预警分数的预测模型.
- 结果变量:病房工作量以每名患者的全职等价 (WTE) 护理人员来衡量.
主要成果:
- 该预测模型在11592个病房评估的测试组中实现了0.078的平均绝对误差和4.9%的平均百分比误差.
- 95%的预测在每名患者0.21 WTE范围内,正如布兰德-阿尔特曼图表所示.
- 在一般病房使用一组有限的常规收集的变量时,观察到适度的准确性.
结论:
- 从常规数据中自动化护士人员需求评估是可行的.
- 这种方法可以减少护理人员的非临床行政开销.
- 可以实现更好的实时监控护理人员人员压力.
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