天气信息改善了急救部门抵达人员的预测模型
Athanasios Burlotos1, Bryan A Stenson2, Anne V Grossestreuer2
1Department of Emergency Medicine, Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA. athanasios.burlotos@bmc.org.
Internal and emergency medicine
|July 31, 2025
概括
天气显著影响急救部门 (ED) 的到来. 将天气数据纳入预测模型可以提高运营规划和气候变化适应策略的准确性.
科学领域:
- 紧急医疗 紧急医疗
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 环境健康 环境健康
背景情况:
- 随着急救部门 (ED) 的数量变化,员工面临着挑战.
- 天气模式可能会影响急救室的患者到达率.
- 准确的ED到达预测对于操作规划和气候变化适应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估每日ED到达总数的预测模型.
- 评估天气变量对ED抵达预测的影响.
- 通过改进ED利用预测,加强运营决策.
主要方法:
- 从美国东北部城市教学医院 (2010-2019) 来到的ED患者的回顾性分析 (2010-2019).
- 开发了两种线性回归模型:一种使用日历变量和滚动平均值,第二种包括天气变量.
- 模型验证使用训练/测试数据集和残留分析来检查过度装配.
主要成果:
- 添加天气变量增加了模型的预测能力 (调整R平方从0.418到0.483).
- 恶劣天气 (雨,雪,风) 与抵达人数减少有关.
- 温暖的气温与抵达人数的增加相关,有季节性变化.
- 周一和温暖的天气预测ED抵达人数增加,而假日和恶劣的天气预测到达人数减少.
结论:
- 包括天气变量显著提高了ED到达模型的预测准确度.
- 基于天气的ED利用模型可以支持更好的运营规划和资源配置.
- 调查结果强调了环境条件和医疗需求之间的联系,这与气候变化适应有关.
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