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基于贝叶斯网络和系统动态模型的钻井施工系统和动态风险分析
Jinhao Zhang1,2, Lirong Wu3,4,5,6,7,8, Tao Zhang1,2
1Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Depositional Mineralization & Sedimentary Mineral, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266590, China.
Scientific reports
|August 1, 2025
概括
本研究引入了贝叶斯网络 (BN) 和系统动态 (SD) 的结合方法,用于钻井施工风险评估. 设备完整性,地质条件和操作技能被确定为主要风险,提高安全性和可持续性.
科学领域:
- 工程 工程师 工程师 工程师
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 地质技术工程 地质技术工程
背景情况:
- 钻井建设对于资源提取和信息收集至关重要.
- 建筑风险影响项目安全,经济和可持续性.
- 传统的风险评估方法缺乏动态和系统的分析能力.
研究的目的:
- 开发用于钻井施工的综合风险分析方法.
- 将静态和动态风险因素分析结合起来.
- 为了提高钻井安全和项目可持续性.
主要方法:
- 建立了一个5维,20指标的评估系统,使用专家采访和现场调查.
- 采用权方法和专家评分来赋予系统权力.
- 构建了一个三层贝叶斯网络 (BN) 和一个带有5个反循环的系统动态 (SD) 模型.
主要成果:
- 确定了关键的风险因素:设备完整性 (59%),地质条件 (55%) 和操作技能 (51%).
- 结合静态 (BN) 和动态 (SD) 分析,进行全面的风险评估.
- 通过将模型应用于实际钻井场景来验证模型的有效性.
结论:
- 在复杂的钻井施工中,BN-SD集成模型为概率预测和流程优化提供了强大的框架.
- 为钻井安全提供了增强的风险分析,特别是在具有挑战性的地质条件下.
- 为工程项目的系统和动态风险管理提供理论基础.
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