大肠直肠癌流行病学 (1990-2050年):澳大利亚亚洲经验的教训
Bihua Yao1, Ying Zhang2, Shikun Li3
1Laboratory Medicine Center, Department of Clinical Laboratory, The First People's Hospital of Jiashan affiliated to Jiaxing University, Jiaxing, Zhejiang, China.
Journal of translational medicine
|August 1, 2025
概括
结肠直肠癌 (CRC) 的负担正在转移到发展中国家. 澳大利亚展示了有效的CRC管理,为全球战略提供了宝贵的教训,以应对可修改的风险和降低死亡率.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 癌症研究 癌症研究
背景情况:
- 结肠直肠癌 (CRC) 是一个重大的全球健康挑战,具有显著的地理差异.
- 了解CRC流行病学对于制定有针对性的公共卫生干预措施至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2021年,分析结直肠癌 (CRC) 的全球流行病学.
- 预测到2050年的CRC死亡率趋势,特别关注澳大利亚.
- 确定影响CRC发病率和死亡率的关键可修改的风险因素.
主要方法:
- 利用来自2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据来确定年龄标准化发病率和死亡率 (ASIR/ASMR).
- 雇佣贝叶斯式年龄周期队列 (BAPC) 建模用于死亡率预测.
- 评估可修改的风险因素,包括饮食,BMI,酒精,吸烟和体育活动.
主要成果:
- 高社会人口指数 (SDI) 地区的CRC发病率最高,但死亡率正在下降.
- 中部SDI地区正在经历越来越多的CRC负担.
- 澳大利亚显示显著的CRC死亡率减少 (每年-1.95%),表明有效的管理策略.
结论:
- 全球结直肠癌的负担越来越多地集中在发展中国家.
- 澳大利亚在CRC管理方面的成功为全球政策和干预策略提供了关键的见解.
- 解决可修改的风险因素对于减轻未来的CRC趋势至关重要.
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