综合老年学评估作为术后痴呆症的预测模型,用于接受重大非心脏选择性手术的老年人
Anastasia Asylia Dinakrisma1, Kuntjoro Harimurti1, Rudyanto Sedono2
1Division of Geriatrics, Department of Internal Medicine, Cipto Mangunkusumo National General Hospital - Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia.
Frontiers in medicine
|August 1, 2025
概括
在接受重大手术的老年人中,术后妄是由年龄,认知和营养状况预测的. 一个开发的模型显示了良好的校准和适度的性能来预测妄想的发生率.
科学领域:
- 老年医学 老年医学
- 手术并发症 手术并发症
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 老年人的手术需求正在增加,术后妄想是常见的并发症.
- 综合老年评估 (CGA) 和风险分层对于预防和预后至关重要.
- 开发预测模型对于管理这种人群中痴呆症至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定经过重大非心脏选择性手术后老年人中术后痴呆症的发生率.
- 使用已识别的风险因素,开发术后痴呆症的预测模型.
- 为了建立一个适用的预测预测对不良结果.
主要方法:
- 追溯性队列研究,利用医疗记录中的二次数据.
- 对370名接受重大选择性非心脏手术的老年住院患者的分析 (2020年1月 - 2023年3月).
- 使用SPSS 20.0和STATA 10进行统计分析,并使用Hosmer-Lemeshow测试和AUC ROC进行模型开发.
主要成果:
- 手术后狂妄的发生率为6.8%.
- 确定的主要预测因素包括年龄 (HR=3.43),认知状态 (HR=2.74) 和营养状态 (HR=3.35).
- 预测模型表现出良好的校准 (p>0.05) 和适度的性能 (AUC=0.750).
结论:
- 年龄,认知状况和营养状况是术后痴呆症的重要预测因素.
- 开发的预测模型提供了良好的校准和适度的性能,用于识别有风险的老年人.
- 这些发现支持使用预测模型来管理老年人手术并发症.
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