城市化对区域气象的影响的灵敏度研究,使用贝叶斯的差异函数分析
Giacomo Moraglia1, Matthew Bonas2, Paola Crippa1
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame du Lac, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA.
概括
城市化对天气模式产生重大影响,通过土地覆盖和气溶效应影响降雨量. 这项研究使用先进的建模技术量化了这些城市降雨效应.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 城市化改变了大气边界层的动态,通过城市热岛 (UHI) 效应,改变风流和城市气溶影响云形成和降水.
- 这些因素共同导致城市降雨效应 (URE),这是一种对当地和区域天气模式的显著修改.
研究的目的:
- 为了将天气模式的城市特征与区域气候学隔离.
- 调查城市土地覆盖面,UHI效应和城市气溶对城市降雨效应 (URE) 的相对贡献.
主要方法:
- 使用天气研究和预报 (WRF) 模型和WRF-Chem.组合数值模拟.
- 用VAriance的功能分析 (FANOVA) 方法将变化归因于特定的城市驱动因素.
- 模拟涉及将城市土地覆盖面和排放量替换为农村等价物进行比较.
主要成果:
- 城市土地覆盖面对地表温度,动动能和降雨模式在城市内和风向下都产生重大影响.
- 对于深层对流事件,城市气溶对降水的影响被发现是优于UHI效应.
- 气溶导致城市地区的降水量增加,而向下风地区的降水量减少.
结论:
- 城市土地覆盖和气溶是城市降雨效应 (URE) 的关键驱动因素.
- 城市气溶在对流活动期间调节降雨强度和空间分布方面发挥着主导作用.
- 了解这些机制对于城市规划和减轻恶劣天气影响至关重要.
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