基于SHAP和BP神经网络的堆承载能力可解释预测模型的研究
Shunbo Li1, Mingwei Hai2,3, Qi Zhang4
1CCCC Second Highway Consultants Co., Ltd, WuHan, 430050, HuBei, China.
Scientific reports
|August 1, 2025
概括
一个逆向传播 (BP) 神经网络,通过像非洲优化算法 (AVOA) 这样的算法进行优化,准确地预测堆承载能力. 没有排水的切削强度和垂直应力是影响预测的关键因素.
科学领域:
- 地质技术工程 地质技术工程
- 在土木工程中的人工智能.
- 机器学习用于结构分析
背景情况:
- 准确预测承载能力对于基础设计至关重要.
- 传统方法可能耗时,可能无法捕捉复杂的土壤结构相互作用.
- 神经网络提供了一种数据驱动的方法,以提高预测的准确性和速度.
研究的目的:
- 开发和优化一个反向传播 (BP) 神经网络模型,以快速准确地预测堆承载能力.
- 为了评估各种优化算法的性能,调整BP模型的超参数.
- 用SHAP值来解释模型的预测,以了解参数的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用文献数据对堆长,直径,有效垂直应力和未排水的剪切强度进行了训练.
- 五个优化算法 (SCA,SO,POA,AVOA,CSA) 用于优化BP超参数.
- 模型验证是在一个独立的数据集上进行的,使用R2值和SHAP可解释性来评估性能.
主要成果:
- BP-AVOA模型获得了最高的R2值 (0.9964),证明了卓越的准确性,稳定性和预测性能.
- SHAP分析确定了未排水的切削强度和平均有效垂直应力是影响堆容量预测的最重要的参数.
- 发现,与强度和应力参数相比,堆的长度和直径的影响较小.
结论:
- 优化的BP神经网络模型,特别是BP-AVOA,为预测承载能力提供了强大而准确的方法.
- 该研究通过SHAP分析成功地解决了神经网络的"黑子"性质,突出了关键的预测因素.
- 这种方法为地质工程师提供了一种有价值的工具,可以实现更快,更可靠的基础设计.
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