本地出生和移民对国内CO2排放的贡献并不相同
Carlo Andrea Bollino1, Marzio Galeotti2
1Department of Economics, University of Perugia, Italy; LUISS University, Italy; University G. Marconi, Italy.
Journal of environmental management
|August 2, 2025
概括
本地出生的人口比移民有更高的二氧化碳排放弹性. 经合组织国家移民排放的影响随着时间的推移而减少,挑战了关于移民和排放的假设.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
背景情况:
- 人口增长是二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放的主要驱动因素.
- 现有的模型经常忽视人口异质性,将人口视为统一实体.
- 本地出生和移民人口对二氧化碳排放的独特贡献仍未得到充分研究.
研究的目的:
- 实证地分解本地出生和移民人口对国内二氧化碳排放的贡献.
- 分析不同经济背景下的本地出生和移民群体之间的差异性排放弹性 (经合组织与非经合组织).
- 调查发达经济体中移民人均排放影响的时间动态.
主要方法:
- 利用了一个扩展的随机影响通过对人口,财富和技术 (STIRPAT) 的回归模型.
- 分析了来自172个国家的数据,从1990年到2022年.
- 根据经济合作与发展组织 (OECD) 和非OECD国家分类的分层分析.
主要成果:
- 与经合组织和非经合组织国家的移民人口相比,本地出生人口始终表现出明显更高的二氧化碳排放弹性.
- 在经合组织国家观察到一个显著的时间趋势,移民的人均排放影响,最初较高,随着时间的推移逐渐减少.
- 2003年至2004年后,经合组织国家的移民人均排放量低于本地出生人口的排放量,这挑战了先前的假设.
结论:
- 这项研究驳斥了移民本质上会增加二氧化碳排放的简单概念.
- 调查结果强调,需要制定细微,公平的气候政策,认识到不同的人口消费模式.
- 差异化的政策方法对于制定更有效的减排战略至关重要.
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