有界的环境随机性产生了二次的Allee值
1Department of Evolution and Ecology and Center for Population Biology, University of California, Davis, CA, 95616, USA.
Journal of theoretical biology
|August 2, 2025
概括
具有Allee效应的种群可以尽管有局限的环境波动,但仍然存在,而不仅仅是不可避免的灭绝. 现实的模型揭示了人口持久性和随机灭绝风险的两个值.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 人口动态 人口动态
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
背景情况:
- 艾利效应描述了一个临界人口密度,低于这个密度,灭绝是可能的.
- 经典模型通常假设正常的环境变化,预测不可避免的灭绝.
- 现实的环境波动是有界的,并不总是正常分布的.
研究的目的:
- 在带有边界环境波动的Allee效应下分析人口动态.
- 调查现实的环境变化对人口持久性的影响.
- 开发更准确的保护和管理模型.
主要方法:
- 使用了零碎决定性的马尔科夫模型 (PDMP).
- 集成的有限状态马尔科夫链用于环境动态.
- 通过值密度和随机 bistability 分析了人口持久性.
主要成果:
- 确定了两个值密度:一个是确定性的灭绝,一个是确定性的持久性.
- 在中等密度下显示的随机双稳定性,具有灭绝或持久的概率.
- 在一个环境中的承载能力下降到另一个环境中的Allee值时,发现持久性是不可能的.
结论:
- 与经典模型相比,有限的环境波动显著改变了人口持久性预测.
- 现实的环境建模对于准确的保护和管理策略至关重要.
- 环境对增长率的非单调影响可能导致持久性挑战.
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