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弹性和损失缓解:来自中国的经验研究
Ling Tan1, Xianhua Wu2, Ji Guo2
1College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China.
概括
本研究使用可计算的一般平衡 (CGE) 模型量化灾难适应能力. 整合复原能力显著减少了经济损失,证明了其在减轻灾害和恢复方面的有效性.
科学领域:
- 灾害风险管理 灾害风险管理
- 经济建模经济建模
- 弹性科学 弹性科学
背景情况:
- 关于抗灾能力在减少损失方面的有效性存在有限的定量分析.
- 人们越来越认识到弹性在减轻灾害影响方面的重要性.
研究的目的:
- 引入一种新的方法,将弹性整合到可计算的一般平衡 (CGE) 模型中.
- 量化评估抗灾能力在减轻灾害相关经济损失中的作用.
- 评估抗灾能力战略在灾后恢复中的有效性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种传统的CGE模型,用于基线灾害损失评估.
- 通过调整弹性参数,将弹性纳入生产模块.
- 使用北京降雨事件案例研究,比较基线和弹性增强的CGE模型.
主要成果:
- 弹性整合显著减少了总产出损失,从2910亿美元降至2098亿美元.
- 在纳入性后,损失率从3.88%下降到2.80%.
- 各部门的复苏率各不相同,贸易和服务业的复苏速度比公用事业和制造业快.
结论:
- 新的CGE方法有效量化了灾难适应能力及其减轻损失的好处.
- 调查结果强调了开发有效的弹性战略和灾后管理的实际影响.
- 具体部门的复苏动态强调了需要量身定制的弹性干预措施.
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