全球趋势和对青少年胃肠道的未来预测
Kun He1,2, Shicai Ye1, Yanqi Kou1,3
1Department of Gastroenterology, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, China.
Frontiers in public health
|August 4, 2025
概括
预计到2050年,青少年和年轻人的全球胃肠道负担将会下降. 尽管病例数量不断增加,但年龄标准化病例数量显著下降,这表明预防和管理策略得到了改进.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 分析疾病趋势,预测青少年和年轻成人 (10-24岁) 胃肠道的全球负担.
- 利用预测来告知和优化医疗保健系统的预防和控制策略.
研究的目的:
- 预测青少年和年轻成年人 (10-24岁) 胃肠道的未来全球负担.
- 为了准确预测疾病负担,比较统计模型.
- 为优化公共卫生干预提供数据.
主要方法:
- 收集了10-24岁的流行,发病率,DALY和死亡率数据 (1990-2019).
- 按年龄,性别和经济发展分层数据.
- 应用了分解和边界分析,比较了两个时间序列模型 (ARIMA被认为是最好的).
主要成果:
- 2019年,病例和死亡人数自1990年以来有所增加,但年龄标准化率 (ASPR,ASIR,ASDR,ASDER) 显著下降 (-6.6%,-3.8%,-50.86%,-53.8%).
- 阿里马模型预测,到2050年,整体负担将大幅减少.
- 预计的趋势显示事件病例的初始上升,流行病例的波动,以及DALY和死亡率的下降,年龄标准化率的持续下降.
结论:
- 虽然原始病例数量上升,但胃肠道的年龄标准化率下降,这表明改善了管理和预防.
- 根据ARIMA模型,预计到2050年,这一群体的疾病负担将大幅减少.
- 继续专注于预防措施和医疗保健优化对于进一步减少胃肠道的全球影响至关重要.
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