多种疾病的进展和健康衰老风险因素的异质影响:一个多队列研究
Shasha Han1,2,3, Wangyue Chen1, Muzi Shen1
1School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
BMJ public health
|August 5, 2025
概括
疾病累积超过老龄化人口的疾病减少,风险因素显著影响多病态进展. 基于年龄,性别,社会经济地位和生活方式的有针对性的干预措施对于有效的管理至关重要.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 人口老龄化正在增加疾病负担和多病症.
- 了解疾病累积和减少的动态对于公共卫生至关重要.
- 可修改的风险因素在慢性疾病的进展中起着重要作用.
研究的目的:
- 量化老龄化人口中的疾病累积和减少.
- 检查可修改风险因素对疾病进展的影响.
- 在8年的时间内分析不同健康状况之间的过渡.
主要方法:
- 在四个大型队列 (中国,ELSA,HRS,SHARE) 中使用了多阶段模型,共有75,874名参与者.
- 在8年内,模拟了四个健康阶段 (0,1,2,≥3个条件) 之间的双向过渡.
- 进行匹配分析以评估年龄,性别,社会经济地位 (SES) 和生活方式因素的影响.
主要成果:
- 疾病累积率 (0.08-0.44) 超过了减少率 (0.00-0.06).
- 转变加速向严重的多病症 (例如,在0.44时2→≥3条件).
- 随着疾病的数量增加,死亡风险增加,吸烟,饮酒和不活动等风险因素影响过渡.
结论:
- 多种疾病的进展加速非线性,受风险因素的大小和初始健康状况的影响.
- 精确干预需要年龄,性别,SES和特定的生活方式的策略.
- 研究结果强调了需要量身定制的方法来管理老年人的慢性疾病.
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