基于随机森林模型的成都-重庆经济圈土地利用的时空变化和驱动因素贡献的识别
Wanxin Huang1, Yuanjie Deng2, Hang Chen1
1School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science and Engineering, Zigong, 643000, China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|August 5, 2025
概括
成都-重庆经济圈的土地使用正在迅速变化,耕地减少,建筑用地扩大. 自然因素驱动一些土地转移,而社会经济因素影响城市增长,影响区域发展.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 地理 地理 地理 地理.
背景情况:
- 加快城市化和增加生态保护的需求需要了解土地使用动态,以实现可持续的区域发展.
- 成都-重庆经济圈在平衡经济增长与环境保护方面面临着关键挑战.
- 分析土地利用演变及其驱动因素对于有效的区域规划和政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地分析2000年至2022年成都-重庆经济圈土地利用模式的时空演变特征.
- 确定和量化该地区土地利用变化背后的驱动机制.
- 为优化土地利用战略提供见解,以实现协调的生态保护和经济增长.
主要方法:
- 使用土地使用转移矩阵,动态度和稳定性指数来分析时间和空间变化.
- 使用标准偏差圆法可视化空间分布和趋势.
- 与随机森林算法集成的PLUS模型被用于识别土地使用变化的关键驱动因素.
主要成果:
- 观察到重要的土地使用演变:耕地减少 (转换为林地和建筑用地),林地和建筑用地扩大 (后者聚集在城市地区),草原收缩,而水体和未使用的土地略有增加.
- 土地使用强度增加和稳定性下降,综合动态度从0.17%上升到0.24%,证明了这一点.
- 自然因素 (海拔,坡度,靠近河流) 主要影响了耕地,森林和水体的扩张,而社会经济因素 (GDP,人口密度) 推动了建筑用地和未使用土地的扩张.
结论:
- 成都-重庆经济圈的土地使用模式是动态的,受到自然和社会经济驱动因素的组合的影响.
- 迫切需要有针对性的战略:保护城市边缘耕地,优化建筑用地布局,加强脆弱地区的生态恢复.
- 协调的区域生态保护和经济增长需要综合土地利用管理,以详细的时空分析为基础.
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