气候变化如何影响阶段结构化的季节性繁殖者的动态?
Yueyang Du1, Frithjof Lutscher2
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada.
Journal of mathematical biology
|August 5, 2025
概括
气候变化对冬眠哺乳动物的影响因年龄而异. 温暖的冬季可能有助于青少年,但伤害成年人,改变人口动态和挑战生命史速度的假设.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 数学模型对于评估气候变化对人口的影响至关重要.
- 代表物种生命周期,资源动态和环境影响的复杂模型通常在分析上难以处理.
- 在高海拔地区冬眠的哺乳动物特别容易受到气候变化的影响.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种分析性可处理的消费者资源模型,捕捉气候变化的季节性和不同的年龄阶段影响.
- 调查青少年和成年人对冬季温度的不同反应如何影响人口动态.
- 挑战这样的假设,即较慢的生命历史总是受到气候变化的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个消费者资源模型,具有不同的青少年和成年阶段以及同步繁殖 (出生脉).
- 纳入季节性变化 (夏季/冬季) 和冬季温度对死亡率的特定阶段影响.
- 在不同冬季条件下分析模型动态,包括稳定性,周期和混乱.
主要成果:
- 尽管纳入了关键的生态和季节性因素,但该模型仍然具有分析性.
- 冬季温度对青少年和成人死亡率的影响差异显著影响着人口动态.
- 人口动态可以从稳定到混乱,这取决于冬季温度和死亡率之间的关系.
结论:
- 冬季温度和死亡率之间的关系是了解气候变化对冬眠哺乳动物的影响的关键因素.
- 对冬季条件的特定阶段反应的实证数据对于准确的人口影响评估至关重要.
- 这项研究质疑普遍的预期,即生命历史较慢的物种受到气候变化的不成比例影响.
相关概念视频
01:16What is Climate?
18.8K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.8K
01:50Global Climate Change
24.8K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.8K
02:39Predator-Prey Interactions
19.1K
Predators consume prey for energy. Predators that acquire prey and prey that avoid predation both increase their chances of survival and reproduction (i.e., fitness). Routine predator-prey interactions elicit mutual adaptations that improve predator offenses, such as claws, teeth, and speed, as well as prey defenses, including crypsis, aposematism, and mimicry. Thus, predator-prey interactions resemble an evolutionary arms race.
19.1K
01:50Threats to Biodiversity
22.9K
There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
22.9K
02:45Biological Clocks and Seasonal Responses
38.4K
The circadian—or biological—clock is an intrinsic, timekeeping, molecular mechanism that allows plants to coordinate physiological activities over 24-hour cycles called circadian rhythms. Photoperiodism is a collective term for the biological responses of plants to variations in the relative lengths of dark and light periods. The period of light-exposure is called the photoperiod.
38.4K
00:53Migration
8.1K
Migration is long-range, seasonal movement from one region or habitat to another. This common strategy, carried out by many different organisms around the world, is an adaptive response that typically corresponds to changes in an organism’s environment, like resource availability or climate. Migrations can involve huge groups of thousands of animals as well as single individuals traveling alone and can range from thousands of kilometers to just a few hundred meters.
8.1K