在北海压力景观的变化中,对底生鱼类的未来累积影响
Jennifer Rehren1, Maren Kruse1, W Nikolaus Probst1
1Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Herwigstr. 31, 27572 Bremerhaven, Germany.
Journal of environmental management
|August 5, 2025
概括
到2060年,气候变化将大大改变北海底鱼群. 虽然海上风电场 (OWF) 和渔业具有局部影响,但预计气温上升将导致广泛的社区转移.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态海洋生态学
- 渔业科学 渔业科学
- 气候变化影响气候变化的影响.
背景情况:
- 北海面临着来自人类活动和气候变化的复杂环境压力.
- 这些压力通过息地变化和环境状况变化对底层鱼群产生重大影响.
- 这些相互影响的压力对鱼群的累积影响仍然不确定.
研究的目的:
- 模拟关键环境驱动因素与北海底鱼类特征之间的概率关系.
- 基于基于特征的指标,预测海底鱼群构成的未来变化.
- 确定脆弱的鱼群,并评估当前保护区的有效性.
主要方法:
- 利用基于特征的贝叶斯网络模型,整合经验数据和专家知识.
- 纳入了关于环境压力,渔业强度,海底鱼类分布和海上风电场 (OWF) 影响的数据.
- 开发基于特征的指标,以评估社区对各种压力因素的脆弱性.
主要成果:
- 确定了脆弱的底生鱼群,主要在北海北部,与现有Natura 2000区域的重叠程度有限 (<10%).
- 海上风电场扩建计划与脆弱地区重叠,这表明了潜在的生态系统增强机会.
- 预计到2060年,由于气温上升,鱼群在整个地区发生重大变化,局部影响来自OWF和渔业再分配.
结论:
- 预计到2060年,气候变化,特别是气温上升,将成为北海底鱼群转型的主要驱动因素.
- 目前的保护工作 (Natura 2000地区) 可能无法充分保护最脆弱的鱼类群落.
- 了解海上风电场,渔业和气候变化的相互作用,对于在北海有效的海洋空间规划和保护至关重要.
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