在伊朗使用系统动态模型预测患有阿尔茨海默病的人口
Vahidreza Borhaninejad1, Milad Ahmadi Gohari2, Yunes Jahani2
1Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Iranian journal of public health
|August 6, 2025
概括
由于人口老龄化,伊朗的阿尔茨海默病 (AD) 患病率正在上升. 预测显示,到2029年,老年人中AD病例将大幅增加,需要积极的医疗保健规划.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 神经学 神经学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 伊朗面临着阿尔茨海默病 (AD) 患病率日益增长的挑战.
- 这一增长主要是由人口统计学转向人口老龄化所驱动的.
研究的目的:
- 预计到2029年,伊朗的阿尔茨海默病病例的流行率和数量.
- 在伊朗人口老龄化背景下,预测AD的未来趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用动态建模技术进行投影.
- 开发了两个相互关联的模型:人口增长的人口模型和AD评估模型.
- 分析了影响伊朗老龄化人口AD趋势的因素.
主要成果:
- 伊朗的老年人口 (60岁以上) 预计将从910万 (2020) 增加到1370万 (2029).
- 预计阿尔茨海默病患者的数量将从大约464,400人 (2020) 增加到2029年的729,900人.
结论:
- 预测AD趋势对于政策制定者来说至关重要,特别是在发展中国家.
- 这些发现有助于评估经济负担,并为阿尔茨海默病的医疗保健规划和资源分配提供信息.
- 强调需要采取积极的战略来管理对医疗保健系统和经济日益增长的影响.
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