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气候变化对传染季节长度的影响:西尼罗河病毒作为一个案例研究

R L Fay¹, C K Glidden¹, A T Ciota^2,3

¹Biology Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.

bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology

|August 6, 2025

概括

气候变化正在延长纽约州的西尼罗河病毒 (WNV) 季节. 较长的WNV季节与蚊子和人类WNV病例的增加相关,需要适应性的公共卫生策略.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
流行病学流行病学
公共卫生公共卫生

背景情况:

气候变化正在增加媒介性疾病的传播,例如西尼罗河病毒 (WNV).
在美国,WNV是蚊子传播的重要疾病,纽约州 (NYS) 经历了显著的温度上升.
气温上升对WNV传播季节长度的影响需要进一步调查.

研究的目的:

为了确定WNV季节是否在过去25年里在NYS延长了.
评估较长的WNV季节与蚊子和人类WNV发病率增加之间的联系.
调查季节长度变化与WNV感染发病和终止时间之间的关联.

主要方法:

综合的每日县级温度数据与蚊子监测和人类病例记录从1999年到2024年.
分析了温度适应性,以定义WNV传输季节.
与蚊子和人类群体中WNV流行率相关的季节长度.

主要成果:

纽约州的WNV季节平均延长了24.8天,开始较早,结束较晚.
延长WNV季节显示出与蚊子和人类中WNV流行率更高的积极关联.
研究结果表明,气候变化正在改变WNV的季节性和疾病负担.

结论:

气候变化明显延长了纽约州WNV传播季节的时间.
延长的季节加大了WNV风险,强调了积极的公共卫生干预措施的必要性.
在不断变化的气候条件下,适应性策略对于管理载体传播疾病至关重要.

关键词:

西尼罗河病毒病毒.气候变化气候变化气候变化季节的长度季节的长度温度的温度的温度的温度的温度载体传播疾病载体传播疾病

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