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Updated: Sep 12, 2025

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在气候变化情景下,Aedes albopictus在中国的未来地理分布

Jianjun Xu¹, Rulin Wang^2,3, Zhenhan Mo¹

¹Department of Hospital - Acquired Infection Management, Chengdu Integrated TCM & Western Medicine Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, PR China.

|August 6, 2025

概括

气候变化正在改变中国的登革热媒介蚊子Aedes albopictus的分布. 未来的预测显示,适合息地的显著扩张,需要适应性的公共卫生战略.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
公共卫生公共卫生
载体传播疾病载体传播疾病

背景情况:

登革热构成了日益严重的全球性威胁,原因是其主要载体 - - 黄斑虫 (Aedes albopictus) 的范围不断扩大.
气候变化是影响疾病载体的地理分布的一个重要因素,如AE. 这就是阿尔博皮克托斯.

研究的目的:

模拟AE未来的分布变化. 在各种气候变化场景下,中国的 albopictus.
为加强对登革热的公共卫生准备提供见解.

主要方法:

利用Biomod2建模包来预测物种分布.
采用集体建模方法,通过ROC,TSS和KAPPA值验证准确性.
分析了20世纪50年代的当前和未来气候场景 (SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5).

主要成果:

整体模型显示了高准确度 (ROC=0.968,TSS=0.81,KAPPA=0.789) 的结果.
目前非常适合的地区集中在中国南部和东部沿海地区,广东,广西和湖南拥有最大的面积.
未来的预测表明,适合地区的显著扩张,特别是在广西中部,广东北部和福建中部,在不同的场景下,中心点的移动.

结论:

预计气候变化将扩大适合Ae的息地. 在中国的 albopictus.
载体分布的动态变化需要制定适应气候的公共卫生战略,以减轻登革热传播风险.

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