量化归因于南韩热带气旋的过度死亡率:从通用合成控制方法的见解
Changwoo Han1, Soontae Kim2, Yoon-Hee Kang2
1Department of Preventive Medicine, Chungnam National University College of Medicine, Daejeon, South Korea; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, 92037, USA.
Environmental research
|August 6, 2025
概括
韩国的热带气旋在两周内平均造成150人过度死亡. 像老年人和受教育程度较低的弱势群体面临更高的风险,强调需要采取防范风暴影响的保护措施.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 灾难医学 灾难医学
背景情况:
- 越来越多的证据将热带气旋与全球不利的健康结果联系起来.
- 有限的流行病学数据存在于韩国风对死亡的影响.
- 了解这些影响对于公共卫生准备和反应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估热带气旋对韩国过度死亡人数的影响.
- 为了确定易受旋风相关死亡率的特定群体.
- 量化归因于单个旋风事件的过度死亡人数.
主要方法:
- 使用了自然实验框架,详细的气旋轨迹和行政单位死亡率数据 (2002-2023年).
- 采用了通用合成控制 (GSC) 分析和随机效应元分析.
- 根据性别,年龄,教育和死亡地点进行了分层分析.
主要成果:
- 热带气旋与所有原因 (0.084%) 和非意外 (0.075%) 死亡率的每日平均增加有关.
- 外部伤害相关死亡率显示非显著增加 (0.007%).
- 据估计,在暴露后的两周内,每次气旋事件发生了超过150例因各种原因造成的死亡.
- 老年人,受教育程度低的个人,以及靠近旋风路径的人群表现出更高的易感性.
结论:
- 热带气旋显著导致韩国过度死亡率.
- 特定的人口群体面临高风险,需要有针对性的干预措施.
- 制定有效的对策对于减轻风相关死亡率至关重要.
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