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中国成年人的生育意图:使用全国调查的横截面研究

Mingyan Hao¹, Chenxiao Zhang², Haofeng Fu³

¹Shanxi Province Cancer Hospital, Shanxi Hospital Affiliated to Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Shanxi Medical University, School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, 030013, China. mingyan.hao@duke.edu.

BMC public health

|August 6, 2025

概括

在中国,男性的生育意图高于女性. 干预措施应针对年轻女性,并促进多代人的生活,以促进家庭成长.

科学领域:

人口统计学人口统计学
社会学社会学社会学
公共卫生公共卫生

背景情况:

降低生育意向在中国是一个重大挑战,尤其是在三个孩子政策之后.
了解影响家庭规模决策的多方面的因素对于有效的政策干预至关重要.
解决低生育率的意图对于国家稳定和长期人口健康至关重要.

研究的目的:

分析影响中国生育意图的社会人口,生活方式,健康和家庭结构因素.
确定不同性别和年龄组的生育意图的关键预测因素.
为政策制定提供信息,以鼓励家庭增长,以应对生育率下降.

主要方法:

来自2022年中国居民心理和行为调查 (PBICR) 的21916名参与者 (18-49岁) 的横截面分析.
对第一个,第二个和第三个孩子的偏好进行评估的生育意图得分 (0-100).
用于分析影响因素的特定领域多变量线性回归和性别分层模型.

主要成果:

男性报告的生育意向明显高于女性 (β=7.63,p<0.001).
积极的预测因素包括年轻的年龄,农村居住,良好的自我评估健康,和与父母一起生活.
双收入家庭没有孩子 (DINK) 和核家庭的意图较低;吸烟和饮酒与意图有关. 随着年龄的增长,女性的意图下降得更为明显.
社会人口因素解释了最大的差异 (R2=0.086).

结论:

生育意图受到性别,健康和家庭结构的影响,社会人口因素是关键因素.
干预措施应专注于年轻女性,促进多代生活,并考虑健康/生活方式因素.
政策应该鼓励家庭扩张,特别是在城市环境中,以抵消低生育率的趋势.

关键词:

关于生育的意图.影响因素影响因素.生活方式因素生活方式因素

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