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目前和未来的温度适合于加拿大的疟疾本土传播

Kevin Siebels¹, Victoria Ng², Nicholas Ogden³

¹Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 rue Sicotte, St. Hyacinthe, QC, C.P. 5000, J2S 2M2, Canada. kevin.siebels@phac-aspc.gc.ca.

International journal of health geographics

|August 7, 2025

概括

气候变化正在加拿大增加疟疾风险. 气温上升创造了适合Plasmodium vivax和Plasmodium falciparum传播的条件,可能会影响数百万加拿大人.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
流行病学流行病学
气候变化研究研究气候变化研究

背景情况:

疟疾仍然是全球主要的健康问题,导致严重的发病率和死亡率.
像Anopheles quadrimaculatus和Anopheles freeborni这样的有能力的疟疾载体存在于北美,包括加拿大南部.
气候变化可能会提高加拿大环境对疟疾寄生虫 (Plasmodium spp.) 的适应性. 传输. 传输. 在传输.

研究的目的:

确定加拿大地理区域和温度条件有利于Plasmodium vivax和Plasmodium falciparum本土传播的频率.
在当前和预测的气候变化场景下评估这些条件.

主要方法:

使用了历史性的Plasmodium spp. 传输温度和持续时间值.
将这些值应用于加拿大的历史和预测气候数据.
计算了适合疟疾传播的温度条件的年度频率.

主要成果:

从2000年到2023年,观察到适合两个Plasmodium物种的条件的上升趋势.
突变表明,多达34%的加拿大人口暂时经历了适合Plasmodium falciparum的条件,56%的Plasmodium vivax.
预计的种群适应性根据等离子体物种,气候变化情景和气候模型而异.

结论:

气候变化明显增加了加拿大本土疟疾传播的风险.
这些发现强调加拿大迫切需要加强对疟疾的监测和准备.

关键词:

气候变化气候变化气候变化疟疾:疟疾是一种疾病.蚊子传播的疾病蚊子传播的疾病载体传播疾病载体传播疾病

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