考虑到复合干旱和热浪事件,大大改善了森林害虫发生预测
Jixia Huang1,2, Sirui Zhu1,3, Yanhong Li1
1State Key Laboratory of Efficient Production of Forest Resources, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China.
Pest management science
|August 7, 2025
概括
复合干旱和热浪事件 (CDHWs) 在中国显著增加了森林害虫疫情. 严重的CDHW驱动大规模的感染,影响森林健康和管理策略.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化正在增加复合干旱和热浪事件 (CDHW).
- 森林害虫病例增加了森林害虫爆发的风险,但数量评估是有限的.
- 中国的森林害虫病发病率需要对气候变化影响进行精确的分析.
研究的目的:
- 量化干旱,热浪和CDHW对中国森林害虫动态的影响.
- 分析2003年至2018年城市级森林害虫发生率数据.
- 用气候变量改进森林害虫爆发的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 对城市级森林害虫发生率数据 (2003-2018) 的分析.
- 使用多个机器学习模型.
- 使用SPEI和热浪频率量化干旱,热浪和CDHW的影响.
主要成果:
- 森林害虫的发病率显示出中国的空间模式,在东部比西部更高 (胡线).
- 纳入CDHW改善了模型预测性能 (R2比基本因素增加了10.6%).
- 严重的干旱 (SPEI < -1) 或强烈的热浪 (频率 > 2) 显著提高了害虫的发生率;CDHWs作为协同驱动器.
结论:
- 森林害虫病发作的主要驱动因素是森林害虫病发作的重要驱动因素.
- 这项研究为加强森林保护和管理战略提供了科学基础.
- 了解气候变化影响对于森林生态系统健康至关重要.
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