揭露隐藏病例:医院查作为一般人口中SARS-CoV-2发病率的代理
Juliane Mees1, Michael Eisenmann2, Tamara Pscheidl3
1Infection Control and Antimicrobial Stewardship Unit, University Hospital Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany; Department of Paediatrics, University Hospital Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany; Central Laboratory Unit, University Hospital Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany.
Public health
|August 7, 2025
概括
卫生保健工作者和住院患者的SARS-CoV-2 (严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2) 发病率数据可以可靠地估计一般人口的感染,特别是当官方报告下降时. 这对于追踪流行后的病毒至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病监测 传染病监测 传染病
背景情况:
- 官方的SARS-CoV-2 (严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2) 发病率监测面临挑战,因为在疫情期间不断发展的测试策略.
- 随着检测要求的变化,感染报告不足成为一个问题.
- 需要替代指标来准确估计SARS-CoV-2的传播.
研究的目的:
- 确定可靠的代理指标,以估计一般人群中未报告的SARS-CoV-2感染.
- 评估一般人口发病率与特定医院基参考组发病率之间的相关性.
主要方法:
- 使用了回顾性观察性研究设计.
- 分析了来自巴伐利亚一般人口的月度SARS-CoV-2发病率数据 (2020年1月至2023年4月).
- 计算了一般人口发生率与医院卫生保健工作者 (HCW),住院患者和访客之间的发生率之间的相关性.
主要成果:
- 一般人口发病率与HCW (r=0.84) 和住院患者 (r=0.81) 发病率有很高的相关性.
- 访客发生率的相关性较弱 (r=0.35).
- 在分析到2022年3月的数据时,相关性显著加强 (HCW: r=0.92,住院患者: r=0.92),表明报告数据的2022年逆转.
结论:
- 2022年的数据逆转表明,SARS-CoV-2感染的报告不足.
- 高等保健医院查数据,特别是来自医疗保健工作者和住院患者的数据,可以作为估计当前发病率的有价值的代理数据.
- 这些代理对于流行后的公共卫生战略至关重要,用于跟踪SARS-CoV-2和其他呼吸道病毒.
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