警务阶段用于健康和犯罪结果的风险评估工具:系统性审查和元分析
Howard Ryland1, Matthias Burghart2, Shaoling Zhong3
1Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, UK.
Social science & medicine (1982)
|August 7, 2025
概括
警方使用的风险评估工具显示准确度低至中等,特别是在预测亲密伴侣暴力 (IPV) 方面. 需要改进工具的开发和验证,以减少健康不平等,并确保可靠的决策.
科学领域:
- 法医科学 法医科学 法医科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
背景情况:
- 风险评估工具在警务中越来越多地用于预测健康需求和犯罪结果,如重复的亲密伴侣暴力 (IPV).
- 这些工具可以影响健康结果并加剧健康不平等,但它们的准确性和可靠性是不确定的.
- 现有工具在警务环境中的表现需要进行批判性评估.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查在警务阶段使用的风险评估工具的开发,推导和验证.
- 评估这些工具对健康和犯罪结果的预测准确性,质量和可靠性.
- 发现当前研究中的差距,并为未来的工具开发和实施提供信息.
主要方法:
- 按照PRISMA指南进行的系统审查.
- 包括在警务中使用的风险评估工具的开发/衍生和验证研究.
- 分析了各种健康和犯罪结果的绩效指标.
主要成果:
- 在29项涉及256,125名参与者的研究中,评估了28种不同的工具.
- 最常见的结果是IPV风险 (62%);很少有研究 (10%) 解决了其他健康结果.
- 聚合性能估计范围从0.64到0.73 (差到中等),IPV工具表现最差 (AUC为0.64).
- 报告超过AUC的性能指标是不充分的.
结论:
- 有限的证据支持现有的警务风险评估工具的常规使用.
- 具有强大的方法的新工具显示出有希望的预测性能.
- 优先开发和验证高质量的工具,特别是IPV,可以改善决策和减少健康不平等.
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